What’s Blooming in Real Estate: Spring Market Insights
2026-04-02 | 07:55:36
If you’re looking for a preview of what spring has in store for the housing market in Canada, you’re in the right place. Here’s everything buyers, sellers, investors, refinancers, and everyone else thinking about a change in their housing situation needs to know.
Rates: Most economists, plus the Bank of Canada itself, have confirmed they believe the policy rate is at the bottom for this rate cycle. For mortgages, that means you’re unlikely to see further rate decreases, so it’s a good time to buy or refinance for a 3-to-5-year term. For those with or looking at a variable rate, there is currently a healthy discount, but over the next two years you’re likely to see a series of increases.
Down Payment News: Nova Scotia unveiled a new program for home buyers, reducing the minimum down payment to only 2%. Credit unions are offering the consumer mortgage products, and the provincial government is providing lender insurance on the mortgages. Other provinces are taking note, although we’re yet to see any other program announced so far.
Canadian Real Estate Association: CREA announced a decline in home sales to start the year, but suggested it was weather related rather than a market downturn. The main reason they believe the market is poised for an uptick is the pent-up demand from buyers 25-40 years old. It’s the biggest home buying cohort in Canadian history, and the buyers have been shut out for the past 3-4 years due to affordability and market conditions. But now rates are at their low point, and 75-85% of the group still want to be home owners. Timing is right for action.
Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation: CMHC’s 2026 housing report came out, predicting near-flat data across new starts (thanks to construction costs and existing inventory), sales (affordability and carrying costs are still factors), and prices (supply and demand are near equal). Housing formation is delayed thanks to all the uncertainty in the market. But perhaps most of all, the economic uncertainty thanks to tariffs, a looming CUSMA renegotiation, and the general volatility of the US economic policy is impacting the Canadian housing market negatively. We’re seeing less activity overall, weak supply and demand, and a flat spring market in 2026.
US Influence: We know the tariff situation with the US is far from resolved. Most recently, the US Supreme Court struck down the original tariffs, but Trump near immediately implemented blanket new ones using one of many legal workarounds available. Also of note is the July 1 deadline for a CUSMA review, which will redraw trade policy between the three countries. Finally, a new Chair of the US Federal Reserve will be confirmed in May. Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh, who has a history of supporting higher interest rates to control inflation. Independence of the organization is high priority for many, although Trump wants rates lowered and is unsurprisingly creating new ways to influence monetary policy. There’s a lot to watch south of the border.
